Macro trends vs. M&A: What now for deals?

Hello,

This week, you might have heard that Indian markets were rewiring following the tariff shocker (see Market Trends below).

And an expected RBI rate cut in October, means financing mathematics will shift, while cheaper debt will make some deals more doable. 

Nonetheless, India Inc is doubling down on overseas borrowing after a sovereign upgrade. 

At the same time, net ECB inflows of $4.6bn from April to June suggest funding remains available, keeping cross-border bids and liquidity alive. 

And finally, big tickets loom as the Ambanis plan to list Jio by mid-2026, which may reset benchmarks and haul in fresh liquidity; and Tiger Global-backed Urban Company is targeting a $1.7bn valuation for an IPO.

Yet, it’s not all positive business news, as Nazara pulled out of Moonshine after the recent gaming clampdown.  

I hope you enjoy this week’s roundup — please connect on LinkedIn to discuss your next M&A deal.

Let’s dive in.

Deal Tracker

Our weekly roundup of confirmed M&A deals in India.

Market Trends

Macro vs. M&A

Deal Street is no stranger to uncertainty.

India’s 7.8% GDP growth this quarter and the US tariff shock have done two things at once: they’ve buoyed confidence in some pockets and added an instant risk premium to export-exposed assets in others. Capital-market signals are mixed (no one knows what’s about to happen next, though here is a helpful JPMorgan calendar to keep track). 

Dealmakers are squirreling away: strategic plays such as Capgemini’s Cloud4C move and the expected Tata Capital IPO show companies will act when value is clear. 

Still volatility is real. One tariff headline wiped out roughly ₹4 lakh crore ($48.2bn) of investor wealth in a session, and India underperformed Asian peers last week.

What this means for buyers

M&A will be used as a de-risking tool, not just a growth lever. Buyers are looking for three things: predictable cash flow; minimal tariff exposure (who bears the cost if tariffs change, for example?); and recurring revenue or loyal customers. 

PE and strategics are active but picky: think autos and adjacent consumption plays, IT services with steady renewals, proven SaaS, and infrastructure contracts that pay rent.

Export-dependent textiles, small pharma and junior manufacturers sit on the distress pipeline and will likely be consolidation targets. That means roll-ups for buyers who can integrate quickly and keep unit economics intact.

The state of play (and peril) is such: macro trends remain supportive (e.g. growth and domestic demand) but policy shocks, FX swings and higher local yields will reprice risk, especially for export-exposed midcaps. Strategics and PE will keep buying, but they’ll choose resilient cash engines. Domestic demand names hold value; export exposure is getting discounted.

When the going gets tough, legal drafting may be the new alpha

Another impact of the tariffs is that deals will likely be re-engineered to survive shocks.

Expect earnouts and contingent value rights (CVRs) tied to tariff bands or volume recovery (a promise to pay if certain events happen). Price collars will limit who wins or loses from big swings; seller notes will bridge valuation gaps when cash is tight.

Diligence will pore over customer concentration, supply chains, and FX-hedging policies, potentially leading to extended deal timelines due to risk aversion and more intense negotiations.

Positive business sentiment will need clearer trade policy, softer rates and INR stability. Or the downside will be a prolonged tariff war, disorderly FX and rising yields. The best dealmakers can do is be ready to consolidate when markets hand them an opportunity.