Deal market surges in Q3 with 999 deals worth $44.3bn

Hello,

This week a record $2.2bn ChrysCapital PE fundraise opened to Indian LPs for the first time – fresh dry powder that can accelerate buyouts, sponsor-led M&A and cross-border acquisitions in India, shifting bidding dynamics.

Meanwhile, American TGH eyed a potential $6bn investment in Vodafone Idea, contingent on a government package: PE capital plus state-policy conditionality that could trigger sector consolidation and contestable restructurings.

And Indian regulators reportedly blocked SBI’s bid to increase its stake in Investec JV, which could affect deal structures, valuations, and the willingness of buyers to pursue similar cross-border or JV-related M&A.

I hope you enjoy this week’s roundup – please connect on LinkedIn to discuss your next M&A deal.

Let’s dive in.

Deal Tracker

Our weekly roundup of confirmed M&A deals in India.

Market Trends

The truth is somewhere in between

This week, BCG’s M&A report, Upside of Uncertainty, and a CSEP article about India’s Private Investment Paradox piqued interest for reasons which will become clear. 

BCG’s core thesis is that uncertainty doesn’t have to be the enemy of M&A. The study says that while volatility suppresses deal values, it creates outsized opportunities for experienced, disciplined acquirers. In uncertain markets, success shifts from expansion to precision, favouring smaller, same-industry, and local deals.

The global context

The post-2020 era has normalised volatility. Trade tensions, tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and supply disruptions drive unpredictable markets.

BCG uses Semi-SDRET, a global downside-only volatility measure, to track uncertainty more accurately than the VIX. In 2024-25, Semi-SDRET was 20–30% above long-term medians, signalling widespread turbulence.

The report notes several M&A trends that occur during periods of economic uncertainty:

Deal size and volume: Average deal size, the report discovered, falls by about a third (34%) from $280m to $186m during uncertain periods.

Sectoral differences: Cyclical sectors such as materials or tech see more consolidation while defensive sectors such as healthcare, and consumer remain steady.

Cross-border and industry patterns: Domestic, same-industry deals surge approximately 200%. Cross-border and cross-industry deals fall 31% and 70%, respectively. Familiarity is preferred over diversification.

Financing: Stock-based deals rise from 21% to 36% of value (cash falls, debt rises). 

Time to close lengthens modestly: From 68 to 91 days, reflecting slower diligence and cautious negotiations.

Returns: During volatile periods, the median two-year total shareholder return (rTSR) from M&A turns slightly negative at -0.4%. Yet experienced acquirers still generate about +1%, while inexperienced ones lose around -7.5%, making professional dealmaking experience the single biggest driver of performance.

The consultancy also says the most typical deals are roll-ups and consolidations as businesses acquire similar firms to improve efficiency and scale.

Sector data

BCG also looked into trends in deal volumes and values. It found that ‘financials and real estate’ dominate in deal value, and TMT is next at $115bn. Consumer is at $107bn, and industrials at $69bn; the report revealed volume peaked in 2021 (20,180 deals) during the Covid pandemic.

Deals worth upwards of $100m peaked in 2021-22 (around 400/month). The years 2023-25 showed a slowdown but sustained mid-tier activity – fewer mega- more midmarket-deals.

BCG urged companies to play offense smartly, focussing on near-core roll-ups and good due diligence in times of uncertainty. 

CSEP’s take on India’s private investment paradox

In a separate article published by CSEP, the economists assert that India’s private companies are investing less in tangible productive assets like plants and machinery. 

This implies weak expansion and capacity building, even though optimism and stock valuations are sky high. Great expectations don’t result in actual private capex, creating bullish sentiment where execution is weak.

The authors say that policymakers and markets expect private investment to drive the next growth phase, but data show muted capex recovery. Corporate profits and capacity utilisation are improving, yet fresh project announcements lag.

Investment hasn’t picked up, the authors say maybe because of global uncertainty with high interest rates, supply shocks, and geopolitical tensions. No one knows what is to come. There are domestic headwinds such as weak consumption, slow rural demand, and financial tightening in India.

The researchers also say that government spending on infra ‘crowds in sentiment but crowds out private balance sheet appetite’.

Corporate behaviour is governed by these signals. Firms use profits for deleveraging, dividends, and buybacks rather than new capacity, and prefer asset-light, digital, or M&A-based growth, instead of greenfield projects.

Capital markets and policy gaps don’t help, either.

While FDI and private credit inflows have grown, these favour financial and services sectors over manufacturing. Incentive schemes (PLI, Make in India, etc) haven’t yet converted to dollars on the ground.

How do these very different takes connect?

BCG asserts that uncertainty creates opportunity for experienced dealmakers, while the Indian economists say all India is really seeing is many promises but little desirable outcome. 

Risk taking in India remains suppressed as firms avoid new capex and prefer financial or M&A-led expansion. Money has also migrated from manufacturing to services, especially financial services. Policy clarity is needed to turn optimism into tangible investment.

Easier said than done.

The paradox is that India expects private‐sector investment to drive growth and job creation, but actual private investment seems weak and declining, especially in manufacturing and equipment. A cycle of what the think tank calls ‘paper optimism’ (big announcements, little execution). Approved projects have fallen as a share of GDP from 1% to 0.7% of GDP. 

Despite India’s abundant reform impetus and investment announcements, private-sector investment is languishing. Firms are optimistic on paper, but lack the demand, return prospects and execution confidence to follow through, creating a private investment paradox.