Daniel Black
Hello,
The Bank of England kept interest rates at 4% this week, while signalling that another cut might happen before the end of the year. Policymakers were split 5-4 in favour of keeping rates steady.
And in other news this week:
- Apollo paid $6bn for half a wind farm
- Abu Dhabi has invested £20bn in the UK in four years
- Goldman Sachs bankers are in line for a 25% pay bump
Thanks for reading, and connect with me on LinkedIn if you want to discuss how I can help with your next M&A deal.
Deal Tracker
Our weekly roundup of all the confirmed M&A deals in the UK.
The rumour mill
- LSEG kicks off £1bn share buyback with Citi
- Brave Bison’s bid for M&C Saatchi’s media arm rebuffed
- Trive-backed Canopy acquires UK-based Tods Technology
- Cinven’s crisis in the UK
- UK’s private share trading scheme faces delays as Pisces approvals languish
- UK’s Starling signs software deal with Canada’s Tangerine, plans 100 hires
- The UK breakthrough fuelling a $10bn bidding war
- KNOT Offshore Partners rises on $10/unit buyout offer from Knutsen NYK
- State Street makes strategic investment in Coller Capital
- Orsted sells 50% stake in UK wind farm for $6 billion to Apollo
- BDO nears merger of UK and Irish firms
- RedBird taps Apollo to fund £500mn Telegraph takeover
- UK regulator refers Getty-Shutterstock merger for an in-depth investigation
- Abu Dhabi invests £20 billion in the UK, double its 2021 pledge
- Diageo unit starts review of Royal Challengers Bengaluru ownership
- Top paid UK Oil CEO fights forgery claims as he chases North Sea Deal
- AB Foods mulls Primark split as clothing retailer outgrows roots
- Activist investor Palliser raises pressure on Rio Tinto to counterbid for Teck
- UK’s ICG Group nears deal to sell Singapore private-education Institution
- Montagu raises €2bn CV to support Wireless Logic
- CIP to buy its first biogas plant in UK from Ørsted
Industry news
- Ares predicts surge in big European private credit deals
- Rachel Reeves set to spare UK banks from Budget tax raid
- UK bank stocks rise after reports they may dodge budget tax raid
- UK’s FTSE 100 clinches new record close; focus on BoE, earnings
- Sterling steadies day ahead of BoE meeting
- Bank of England’s Breeden urges closer UK-US stablecoin collaboration
Salaries and bonuses
Job moves
- BNP Paribas shakes up UK coverage team with Bigham promotion
- Hg appoints new Co-CEOs
- ECI Partners adds two new hires to investment team
Market trends
Rosier times ahead?
As 2025 draws to a close, can we expect 2026 to be a more successful period for the UK economy? Not according to KPMG, which forecasts that GDP growth will slow to 1.1% next year from 1.2% in 2025.
The consultancy’s economic forecast predicts that inflation will peak at around 4% by the end of the year and remain elevated before gradually easing through 2026, reaching the Bank of England’s 2% target by mid-year.
In a finely balanced decision this week, the BoE held rates at 4% with five members voting to pause and four favouring an immediate cut. This comes ahead of the Autumn Budget on November 26, when Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce significant tax increases to plug a fiscal gap estimated between £20bn and £50bn.
Storming past $1tn in Q3
Dealmakers are celebrating a rare milestone as global M&A values surged past $1tn in Q3 2025, only the second time this occurred in a third quarter on record.
The $55bn take private of Electronic Arts by Silver Lake and partners exemplifies this trend, with YtD deal values climbing 27% to approximately $3tn, positioning 2025 for its strongest finish since 2021. Big transactions pushing Q3 valuations further include Palo Alto Networks’ $25bn acquisition of CyberArk and Union Pacific’s $80bn Norfolk Southern tie up.
However, Bloomberg data reveals actual deal flow remains flat, up less than 0.5% YoY, whilst cross border transactions have fallen to just 34% of total deal numbers. PE faces pressure from LPs demanding returns, with nearly 1,000 portfolio companies valued above €1bn held for over six years awaiting exit opportunities.
London IPO market awakes
Who would have thought that the pricing of challenger lender Shawbrook and Italian tinned food carve out Princes Group would signal a turning point for London’s IPO market?
Yet these mid-cap listings, alongside Beauty Tech Group and Fermi America’s dual listing, have lifted the LSE to a four-year IPO high of approximately $2.2bn as of the end of October.
Looking ahead, Dealogic data predicts a robust 2026 pipeline, with HG Capital-backed Visma, EQT-backed IVC Evidensia, and Uzbekistani goldminer Navoi preparing larger transactions that will test the market’s capacity.
Fundraising
IPOs
