Indian markets repricing after Greenland panic

Hello,

This week, PhonePe’s future listing was approved with implications for Walmart and Microsoft sell-downs. Experts say this transaction will set a benchmark for future fintech valuations and exit routes.

Meanwhile, there was speculation about India’s largest drugmaker Sun Pharma looking to buy Organon to deepen its US presence, potentially one of India’s largest outbound acquisitions.  

And finally,  there are rumours of Everstone exiting Burger King in India and Indonesia, a high-profile exit in the QSR sector. 

I hope you enjoy this week’s roundup – please connect on LinkedIn to discuss how Ideals VDR can help with your next M&A deal.

Let’s dive in.

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Market Trends

Why so triggered?

President Trump’s threats over Greenland and the consequent defensive reactions across Europe had a disproportionate impact on Indian markets. The Nifty 50 dipped and the BSE Sensex slid to a three-month low, shedding nearly 1,000 points. 

This is no surprise, as most foreign institutional investors still view India as a convenient risk bucket, and as global risks flare, India is among the first to be sold off.

The sales were swift, suggesting quant funds, ETFs and global allocators de-risked mechanically, pointing to algorithmic selling rather than discretionary panic. Around ₹9 lakh crore ($98.2bn) in market capitalisation was wiped out, and technical indicators such as the India VIX jumped sharply, reflecting elevated fear and risk aversion. 

The benchmarks in America moved in the same direction. Usually, correlations rise when capital is withdrawn, rather than when it is invested. But unlike the sell-offs, recovery is slow and Indian markets only recovered marginally. Today’s updates suggest that bearish grip is loosening. 

That said, India’s market value proposition and fundamentals remain intact. Pricing not so much. 

But continued foreign outflows added pressure. 

Moreover, as Indian markets are also sensitive to currency swings, a weaker rupee may have amplified selling. 

A doolalley rally 

US equity indices came under pressure as India’s did, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling about 2% on Tuesday, driven largely by tariff-related geopolitical fears. After the pressure eased and political rhetoric softened, US indices rallied on Wednesday, gaining about 1%.

Week-to-week moves in the US market, however, remain mixed. Even with rebounds, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown modest declines, while smaller US stocks such as the Russell 2000 showed relative strength.

The bellwether cannot hold 

Reliance Industries, India’s largest listed firm, showed a sharp decline in share prices, further dragging market sentiment amid earnings concerns, contributing to pressure across indices. 

When Reliance weakens alongside an index breakdown, it signals a broadbased repricing is coming

What this means, dealmakers

India entered 2026 with elevated public-market multiples and aggressive private-market pricing, especially in growth equity. 

Premiums will need to be earned, not assumed, as deal activity might likely skew toward consolidation and assets. 

Sellers can no longer rely on peak-cycle multiples, as has become customary in negotiations over valuations. Growth stories could lose leverage and businesses will need to put their back into achieving positive cashflows fast to better underwrite value.