Budget ’26 could change the M&A landscape

Hello,

This week, there were reports that APAC dealmaking slowed through 2025, with transaction volumes falling even as capital pools grew larger: that means capital is not retreating in India with fewer deals, but higher conviction and much optimism.

Also, EQT’s agreement to acquire Coller Capital, alongside its $14 billion Asia fundraise nearing a hard cap, points to how secondaries have shifted from being cyclical exit tools to core private-markets infrastructure for Indian founders, GPs and LPs.

Meanwhile, India’s wealth management sector is entering a consolidation phase as a $0.40 trillion demand gap drew banks, NBFCs and PE-backed platforms into acquisition frenzy mode for distribution and advisory capabilities.

And finally, Blackstone is rumoured to have plans for a ₹4,500 crore ($489m) IPO of a Piramal-acquired company, as another sponsor might exit via public markets. This, just as strategic inbound interest, including BYD’s India expansion plans, hint at the next wave of industrial deal flow.

I hope you enjoy this week’s roundup – please connect on LinkedIn to discuss how Ideals VDR can help with your next M&A deal.

Let’s dive in.

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Market Trends

Ninth life? 

Dr Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget this year will make her the only finance minister to have presented nine such financial plans consecutively, which spells stability of a sort for the country’s commerce and economics. 

And this may be her most important and challenging yet, given the new and unfamiliar geopolitical disorder, as global LPs reallocate money but remain keen on India and the wider region. And some say President Trump’s rebuff – as his tariffs add up to 50% for India – has helped Prime Minister Modi and his cabinet find a new inexplicable mojo as India’s China+1 potential lies under threat.

For all these reasons, India’s 2026–27 Union Budget will be watched closely by the M&A community and not only for headline tax cuts, but much more that might set in motion deeper structural reforms, while aiming to catalyse private investment and improve the deal environment – especially so deals may close fast. 

The key macro backdrop is of robust but moderating growth, with the government’s own economic survey projecting GDP growth of 6.8%-7.2%. Slowing external demand and trade disruption will likely push the finance minister to prioritise foreign capital inflows and investor confidence. 

Taxing times

For dealmakers, the most direct impact of Budget 2026 is likely tax policy changes as experts call for reforms to increase certainty in merger taxation, particularly with respect to cross-border mergers and outbound restructuring. 

Existing conditions that make tax neutrality difficult for foreign mergers, such as rigid share issuance requirements, are often cited as hurdles for Indian firms with global plans and international strategic tie-ups, such as the recent Tiger Global ruling. 

There is also a great deal of lobbying for clarity on stock options and ESOP (employee stock ownership plan) taxation, which directly affects startup exits and management incentives, sadly a recurring theme in India’s tech and high-growth M&A landscape. 

The freefalling rupee

The rupee’s recent volatility and shifts in foreign portfolio investment behaviour could mean that fiscal predictability is a concern. And with the capital account turning negative in some quarters, we could see new activity to support stable foreign capital flows – such as capital gains tax tweaks or FDI expansion in targeted sectors. 

For private equity investors and strategic acquirers, any signal that India is prioritising global investor comfort through tax efficiency and macro stability is manna. The result should be a boost in favourable allocations and decision-making confidence while broadening the bidder base for larger transactions.

In summary, the Budget holds levers that could materially influence the M&A landscape: from tax clarity and cross-border merger friendliness to procedural speed and investor confidence measures. 

Not all expectations may be met, but even incremental structural reforms when coupled with macro stability can shift both strategy and valuation frameworks for dealmakers in India’s increasingly sophisticated market.