A state-led machine for deals until 2030?

This week, an AI-triggered rout in technology erased $14.4 billion in value for national insurer LIC and many mutual funds, marking the worst bloodbath since 2008 and upsetting dealmakers banking on tech-led exits. 

These tremors were amplified by fresh anxiety around gen-AI disruption after Anthropic’s Claude Code update reportedly sparked an IBM selloff, another repricing event for India’s huge IT market cap.

Also, Indian SMEs attempting the jump to the mainboard are running into tighter compliance and governance scrutiny, raising the bar for their IPOs. Omnitech finds itself in the spotlight approaching its listing date, and investors might pivot from momentum to fundamentals to improve PE-backed issue quality.

Meanwhile, Novartis is exiting its India arm in a $159 million transaction with India’s PE fund ChrysCapital. 

And finally, Urban Company’s InstaHelp crossed 50,000 daily bookings showing quick-services platforms, or ‘Q-commerce’, scale at the usual velocity–traction that keeps late-stage private capital and strategic acquirers interested (even as tech wobbles overall).

I hope you enjoy this week’s roundup – please connect on LinkedIn to discuss how Ideals VDR can help with your next M&A deal.

Let’s dive in.

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Market Trends

A monolith, a hard place, the devil, the sea 

The M&A universe hardly pauses. Just last week, dealmakers and newswatchers were concerned, elated or deflated, the cauldron of geopolitics boiled, and troubled, and valuations turned frothy. If that wasn’t enough AI stamped all over India’s IT; even as finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Union Budget announcement faded from memory. 

Here are four reasons which reveal more, drawn from recently published reports.

The monolith: Report calls for an AI tax, causing much consternation

First up, a broader market reaction to the Citrini Research AI scenario modelling study triggered discussions beyond equity markets into policy realms. 

The study’s co-author Alaap Shah suggested governments explore taxing AI to cushion ‘sweeping job losses’. This is not new but the timeline was suggested as being as immediate as the next 18 months. 

The writers warned, ‘AI could reduce white-collar employment by nearly 5% over the next 18 months,’ calling for fiscal measures to address social and economic dislocation risks, Reuters reported. Some said he was calling a bet on a ‘global 2028 intelligence crisis’.

These data landed especially strongly when publications claimed the narrative contributed to a scare-trade selloff that reverberated beyond equities into risk premia and asset allocation. Shah is now being touted as one of those who call impending crashes.

The episode may indicate how fragile sentiment around legacy tech is, profoundly affecting and confusing IT leadership and big capital.

Tech disruption narratives for strategists, especially when automation intersects employment dynamics, will shape sector valuations, particularly in India where labour costs and outsourcing models remain core value drivers.

Dealmakers must look out in tech, software, and services to incorporate policy scenario risk assessments as they alter sector, and global, economics.

The hard place: India’s (possibly) continuous deal pipeline until 2030

While markets feel a mixture of paralysis and panic in such uncertain times, a government report tells us to expect a sustained infrastructure deal flow through the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP). This programme charts a course for where smart capital might want to find homes for a while: the state machinery’s multi-year deal origination engine offering brownfield rights and long-duration concession vehicles for infrastructure assets. No small deal in India which is crying out for more and better infra.

And this may well form the backbone of M&A activity in the coming years in the subcontinent.

Dealmakers should look forward to big concession agreements in roads, rail, power transmission, airports, and ports; REITs becoming a standard acquisition and exit mechanism; secondary market trading of infrastructure stakes as institutional investors rotate capital.

It might be interesting to see how nuance in financial vehicles, regulatory architecture and exit mechanisms evolves especially with India’s own traditional PPP model and UK’s innovative PFI one providing plenty of backstory and experience – good and bad. Can Indian authorities attract a wider set of buyers and help cross-border capital inflows take off?

The devil: PE hyper-competitive? Are you sure?

According to Bain’s latest Global Private Equity insights, the global PE industry is navigating a structurally tougher landscape where traditional return drivers have shifted. 

The research firm stresses that while deal activity and exit values showed pockets of strength in 2025, the industry’s exit environment was slow, with firms holding assets longer and facing valuation headwinds from higher interest rates and macro uncertainty. 

The LPs interviewed didn’t have an easy ride, either, as more than half reported limited capacity for new commitments due to capital already deployed and yet to be returned, increasing pressure on GPs. 

For M&A and private markets teams, this translates into heightened competition for quality assets, naturally. 

India-focused deals may benefit as global buyout firms diversify geographically, but success will hinge on rigorous value creation.

The deep sea: India contains multiples, said Kroll

US financial advisory Kroll’s latest industry multiples benchmarking highlighted valuation dynamics across key Indian sectors through year-end 2025. 

It said the country’s real GDP growth projections at 7% remain supportive of corporate valuations, yet sector-specific pressures persist amid global uncertainty. 

Construction & Engineering: structural headwinds from global trade and financing caused a market capitalisation decline of approximately 14.1%, reflecting slower industrial investment and more expensive equipment. 

Chemicals: also saw structural headwinds and suffered a roughly 14.2% drop as excess Chinese capacity and weak global demand weighed on pricing and export growth. 

Machinery: tiny contraction at nearly 3.5% tied to softer industrial activity and muted mining demand. 

Capital markets: multiples weakened about 5.8% due to regulatory shifts that reduced margins for asset management firms. 

Dealmakers will persevere, looking for pockets of resilience in valuations, and nicely structured deals, roll-ups, or strategic buys at attractive entry multiples. 

The country’s underdogs – its mid-cap and small-cap segments – could present ‘arbitrage opportunities’, said Kroll, especially where operational improvements or synergies are under-priced relative to long-term growth fundamentals.