Daniel Black
The ongoing global turmoil caused by the Iran conflict seems to be having a cooling effect on market rumours. It’s a noticeably quiet week, though there are still two big FMCG deals on the table.
News broke this week that Danone is reportedly set to buy Huel for €1bn, while Unilever is in talks to sell its food division – home to iconic brands such as Marmite and Pot Noodle – to spice and sauce maker McCormick in a deal expected to be valued at tens of billions of dollars.
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Deal Tracker
Our weekly roundup of all the confirmed M&A deals in the UK.
The rumour mill
- UK regulator to probe collapsed mortgage lender MFS
- Danone to buy meal-in-bottle maker Huel in €1bn deal
- BNP Paribas surges up UK M&A rankings
- Unilever in talks to sell food division to spice and sauce maker McCormick
- Janus Henderson boosts loan, scraps junk bond tied to buyout
- Advent portco Cobham Ultra to sell Ultra Cyber to Airbus
- British Airway parent IAG SA leans toward dropping TAP Air Portugal pursuit
Industry news
- UK borrowing costs reach highest level since 2008 as economic hit from war mounts
- Gilt yields surge to highest level since 2008
- Markets wrong on UK interest rate rises, say economists
- UK business activity barely grows as war drives up costs
- UK Inflation Holds at 3% as Iran War Sparks BoE Rate Hike Fears | Morningstar UK
Market trends
EQT, Advent and Cinven build in escape routes as conflict premium reprices exit windows
According to Ion Analytics, Europe’s private equity community has quietly abandoned single-track exit planning as Brent crude holds stubbornly above USD 100 per barrel and geopolitical headlines shift by the hour.
EQT’s decision to accelerate a full CHF 4.9bn clean-up trade in Galderma, rather than a measured partial sell-down, is the clearest illustration: certainty of execution now trumps price optimisation. The reported dual-track pivot at TK Elevator, where Advent and Cinven are running IPO preparations alongside strategic talks with Kone, reinforces the same instinct.
Services pull ahead as goods exports lose ground
UK total exports reached £925.5bn in 2025, a 3.1% annual gain that masks a telling divergence beneath the headline, reported by the Department for Business & Trade.
Goods exports contracted 3% over the period, while services exports expanded 7.8%, a structural shift that has only sharpened in the most recent rolling data: the 12 months to January 2026 put total exports at £931.7bn, up 3.5% year-on-year, with goods still sliding 1.7% as services pushed ahead by a further 7.4%.
Outward FDI stock holds near £1.9 trillion
UK outward FDI stock edged up 0.9% to £1,856.1bn at end-2024, a modest gain that obscures a more consequential reorientation beneath. EU-directed stock fell sharply from £792.1bn to £630.4bn, continuing a retreat that has gathered pace since 2022’s peak, while non-EU stock climbed to £1,225.8bn, its highest level on record and now accounting for roughly two-thirds of the total.
Fundraising
