Daniel Black
Profit warnings are rising in the UK, and so are take-private deals.
UK-listed companies put out 65 warnings in Q3, the most since late 2024, and shares typically lost 13% on the day.
It looks like private equity is making the most of it, as new data shows that take-private value has already passed €30bn this year, more than in all of 2025. And this week Ridgeview Partners closed its £545m deal for Pinewood Technologies.
In this week’s editorial, I look at why a weak quarter is often the opening chapter of a bid.
Elsewhere, buyers showed plenty of appetite:
- CRH completed its $8.5bn acquisition of US infrastructure group Arcosa, the biggest deal in this edition.
- LSEG agreed to buy credit data platform Octus from Permira for around $3.5bn, its largest deal since Refinitiv.
- Guidewire signed a deal to buy London-based AI underwriting platform hyperexponential for $1.7bn.
We also cover TPG circling data centre group Ark, the collapse of Smith & Nephew’s merger talks with J&J, and the rest of the week’s deals. Let’s get into it.
Thanks for reading, and connect with me on LinkedIn if you want to discuss how I can help with your next M&A deal.
Share your views on data room prices for a chance to win $150
One M&A advisor recently received a €90,000 invoice from his virtual data room provider, nearly four times the original quote. We suspect he’s not alone.
We’re surveying dealmakers across the M&A Community to find out how common hidden VDR costs really are. Share your experience in just two minutes.
As a thank you, everyone who takes part will be entered into a prize draw for a $150 Amazon voucher. All responses are confidential.
Weekly summary | 30.10.2026
This week we tracked 32 completed deals with UK and Irish involvement. Technology led the way with six transactions, followed by industrials and business and professional services with four each.
The largest deal came from Ireland, where CRH closed its $8.5bn acquisition of US infrastructure products group Arcosa.
The grid is pulling in capital. Five deals this week were tied to power networks or renewables, from Renew’s £50m purchase of cabling specialist PBU to two solar projects bought by Enviromena. As investment in the electricity network ramps up, the contractors and suppliers serving it are becoming sought-after targets.
UK tech is still attracting overseas buyers. Half of the six technology deals went to acquirers from the US, India and Germany, led by Ridgeview Partners’ £545m take-private of Pinewood Technologies.
Sponsors were behind much of the activity. At least seven deals involved private equity or private credit as buyer, seller or backer, which matches the take-private trend we see in this week’s numbers.
From profit warning to takeover bid
A profit warning used to mark the end of a bad quarter. More and more, it looks like the first chapter of a bid.
UK-listed companies issued 65 profit warnings in Q3 2026, the most in a single quarter since Q4 2024, according to EY-Parthenon. The causes are what stand out.
- A record 54% cited policy change and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Listed housebuilders have already issued more warnings this year than in the whole of 2008.
- Shares fell 13.2% on average on the day of a warning.
That last number is where private equity comes in.
Buying into the dip
PitchBook data shows UK take-private value has reached €30.3bn so far in 2026. That is already more than in all of 2025, and the year is on course for a record. The deal count adds a second point. There have been 14 take-privates so far this year, against 22 last year, so sponsors are doing fewer but bigger deals.
The UK is also where most of the activity is. Eight of the 10 European take-privates in Q3 were UK companies. Interest rates are part of the reason. Unlike the ECB, the Bank of England has not raised rates, which has helped keep financing more predictable for buyers.
This week brought a fresh example, with Ridgeview Partners completing its £545m take-private of Pinewood Technologies.
What it could mean next
Not every warning will lead to a bid. But as long as share prices react this sharply, discounted UK listed companies are likely to stay on sponsors’ radar.
For boards, it puts more weight on having a clear view of value before the market sets one for them. If economic uncertainty carries into 2027, the pipeline of potential targets may well grow.
Rumour mill
- AIM-listed Quadrise has launched a strategic review to speed up adoption of its fuel technology, alongside a going-concern warning.
- Equals’ exclusivity with OFX has ended, but talks continue on its A$1.00-a-share cash proposal for the Australian payments group.
- Japan’s Meiji Yasuda will commit around $1.25bn to Man Group’s strategies and plans to take a stake of up to 5% in the hedge fund manager.
- Merger talks between Smith & Nephew and Johnson & Johnson’s orthopaedics unit have collapsed over who would lead the combined group, the FT reports.
- Moneyfarm has reportedly rejected a takeover bid of up to €300m from eToro, saying it undervalues the digital wealth manager.
- Poundland on brink of collapse with 12,000 jobs at risk
- Renishaw is continuing its sale process for its neurosurgery business as it refocuses on its core metrology operations.
- RHI Magnesita’s deadline to make a firm offer for Vesuvius has been extended to 24 November, with the two sides agreeing headline terms on antitrust conditions and a reverse break fee.
- Shell and ExxonMobil have put their UK-based additives joint venture Infineum up for sale, in a deal that could value it at around $8bn, the FT reports.
- TPG is in talks to buy British data centre operator Ark from Elliott in a deal worth around $5bn, according to the FT.
Job moves
- Azets’ UK & Ireland CEO Peter Gallanagh will step down at the end of the year, with CFO David Aikman taking over as managing director.
- Clyde & Co has strengthened its global aviation practice with the hire of partners Dave Pflieger and Tannie Kwong.
- GB Group chair Richard Longdon will retire from the board at the end of November.
- KPMG has appointed Svilena Tzekova as global head of consulting.
- Lloyds Banking Group has appointed Chris Rhodes as an independent non-executive director from 1 November.
- McBride has begun the search for a new chief executive after Chris Smith announced his retirement.
- Metro Bank chair Robert Sharpe will step down on 31 October, with senior independent director Catherine Brown taking over as interim chair.
- NCC Group has appointed CFO Guy Ellis as chief executive with immediate effect, succeeding Mike Maddison.
